ARCHIVED - Fifth wave of Covid could reach its peak in Spain this week

Cautious optimism as the upward Spanish infection curve shows signs of flattening out

Despite the marked increases over the last week in coronavirus infection rates in Spain and in the numbers of Covid patients receiving hospital treatment and intensive care, there is optimism that the last week of July and the first few days of August could see the peak of the fifth wave being crested at last.

Analysts and epidemiologists point to the slowing down in the increase of incidence rates as one of the principal grounds for optimism: the latest daily update published by the Ministry of Health on Friday evening showed a rise of only 3 per cent in the 14-day rate, to 677 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, while recent increases in the 7-day rate have been closer to 1 per cent and the latest figure is 338, almost exactly half the fortnightly rate.

At the same time, while all of the country’s 17 regions remain well above the “extreme risk” threshold of 250 in terms of the 14-day rate, the 7-day figure is under half the fortnightly one in the regions of Andalucía, Asturias, the Balearics, Castilla y León, Catalunya, the Comunidad Valenciana and Navarra. The highest figures are reported in Catalunya (1,185, considerably lower than the day before), Navarra (984), Castilla y León (890) and Aragón (864), while at the other end of the scale are Castilla-La Mancha (299) and Murcia (378).

Hospital patients and fatalities

However, if the spread of infection is slowing, this has yet to be reflected in the country’s hospitals. On Friday there were 7,955 Covid patients receiving hospital treatment in Spain as opposed to 5,056 a week previously, an increase of 57.3 per cent, and in consequence 6.64 per cent of hospital beds are occupied by patients with positive test results.

Similarly, the number of intensive care Covid patients had risen by 48 per cent in 7 days to 1,292, accounting for 14.1 per cent of available beds, while in Catalunya that proportion had climbed to fractionally over 40 per cent.

Taking the broader view, though, during July the Rt rate has fallen from 1.74 to 1.15, and further decreases are expected. With 53.5 per cent of the population fully vaccinated and 64.3 per cent having received at least one dose Spanish society as a whole is among the most protected in the world, and while the number of doses administered continues to fluctuate around half a million per day that level of protection will continue to increase.

There is still a long way to go, of course, and the Ministry’s Friday bulletin reports a 15.74 per cent testing positivity rate, three times higher than the 5 per cent threshold beneath which the WHO considers contagion to be under control. At the same time, the vast majority of teenagers and young adults are yet to achieve full vaccination status, and infection rates in these age groups continue to be alarmingly high.

But as the last week of July begins and many Spaniards prepare for their annual August holidays, the next few days could be crucial in determining whether the peak of the summer season of 2021 will be marked by a worsening of the situation in hospitals, or by the beginning of the end of the fifth wave of the coronavirus pandemic.