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ARCHIVED - Imperial College estimates 7 million cases of Covid-19 in Spain
Lockdown measures are calculated to have saved around 16,000 lives so far
As a result of analysts generally agreeing that the official statistics published regarding the coronavirus pandemic in Spain are extremely incomplete, with s lack of testing kits greatly reducing the number of cases confirmed, there have been numerous attempt to estimate the “real” total.
One such study which received widespread publicity a few days ago concluded that the number of people infected in this country may be as much as 10 times higher than the number of patients reported by the regional health authorities. If this were to be the case then on Tuesday, when a total of 94,417 cases was reported, the “real” figure would be just under a million: not even in the same bracket as a total of 7 million which has been published by Imperial College in London.
Researchers at Imperial College believe that the number of infections in this country lies in the very broad bracket between 3.7 per cent and 41 per cent of the population, meaning between 1.5 million and 19 million cases, with the most likely value being 15 per cent (or 7 million). These conclusion in a paper titled "Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries” (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK), and if they are correct it would mean that Spain has the highest rate of infection in the countries included, followed by Italy (9.8 per cent).
In Germany, on the other hand, the rate of infection is estimated at only 0.72 per cent.
The study also concludes that the restrictions on travel and social interaction (grouped under the title “non-pharmaceutical interventions”) have so far saved around 16,000 lives in Spain, and that the current death toll in Spain would be even higher if the lockdown had not been imposed at between 13,000 and 44,000.
However, the Imperial analysis does invite scepticism on some counts. If there are indeed 7 million people infected in this country then it would mean that the morbidity rate currently stands at only just over 0.1 per cent, similar to that of a normal flu virus. Even in South Korea, where efforts to combat the virus have met with most success, such a low rate has not been achieved, and in the case of Germany, another country where anti-coronavirus measures have been relatively successful, the figure stands at close to 1 per cent.
Image: Imperial College
Remember: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN. STAY AT HOME. STAY SAFE AND DO YOUR BIT TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS.
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Around Mazarrón news, events and local info: Click to join
Mazarrón, Fuente Álamo, Águilas, Lorca, Totana, Puerto Lumbreras, Camposol, Alhama de Murcia. Click to join (all within a half hour drive of each other)
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What to do if you are in the Region of Murcia and believe you may have contracted the virus
The regional government has set up a special helpline to supply information to members of the public (900 121212) if they suspect that they may have contracted the virus rather than going straight to hospital or to a medical centre.
Sensible precautions
The advice being issued to members of the public by medical authorities all over the world coincides on the following points:
- Wash hands frequently with either soap and water or a sanitiser gel
- Catch coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues – and throw the tissues away immediately after use before immediately washing your hands!
- If you don’t have a tissue, use your sleeve – and wash the item of clothing used at the next opportunity
- AVOID touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands
- AVOID close contact with people who are unwell
- Don´t panic!
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