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ARCHIVED - Murcia exported 688 million euros worth of products to the UK in the first nine months of 2020
A no-deal Brexit could cost Murcian businesses millions of euros, so the current lack of progress is being watched with anxious eyes
Although for most of the British nationals now living in Murcia and those hoping to move to Spain for their retirement the forthcoming Brexit at the end of this year has important implications, for the businesses of the region a hard exit without a trade deal could potentially mean additional costs running into millions of euros or the loss of business from the Uk altogether.
The Region of Murcia occupies fifth position in the league table of Spanish regions exporting their products to the UK, and during the first nine months of 2020 increased sales to the UK by 8.5 percent compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 688 million euros.
The main products exported from the Region of Murcia to the UK are fresh and frozen vegetables (worth 252 million euros), fresh and frozen fruits (177 million), juices (78 million), chemical products (28 million) and ingredients and additives for food (24 million).
So the implication of potential tariffs is a worrying situation for the Murcian farmers who depend almost entirely on British supermarkets for their sales.
If no trade deal is agreed, the UK and EU will trade on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms - the basic rules for countries without trade deals. From 1st January 2021, the UK will apply a UK-specific tariff to imported goods, a situation which will inevitably lead to price rises.
There have been several studies examining the impact on the difference this could potentially make to the average UK family, a study entitled 'Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach' published in the journal BMJ Open and prepared by researchers at Warwick University being a widely quoted study.
The experts estimate that Tea, Coffee & cocoa will be least affected by Brexit and that meat, dairy and jams would be most affected.
The most minimally disruptive deal would be one similar to what we had under membership of the EU, this will likely cost a family of four an additional £5.80 per week for a healthy diet, and it could plausibly be as much as £18.17.
Under a hard Brexit, the costs and the uncertainty are much higher: the family of four would likely see an increase of £20.98 per week, but it could be as much as £50.98 per week.
Lead investigator Dr. Martine Barons, from the Department of Statistics at the University of Warwick comments:
"We conducted the research using estimates from ten specialists with expertise in food procurement, retail, agriculture, economics, statistics and household food security. We then combined in proportions used to calculate Consumer Price Index food basket costs, median food price change for Brexit with a Deal is expected to be increased by 6%, and with No-deal it is expected to increase 22%.
Faced with more expensive imported beef for example (which has a very high tariff), shoppers could decide to buy British. But they might not have that choice when it comes to fresh fruit and vegetables.
In March, when a lot of the UK's produce is out of season, the country imports 90% of its lettuce, 80% of its tomatoes and 70% of its soft fruit from the European Union, according to the British Retail Consortium, which represents shopkeepers.
A no-deal document published by the government said: "At the time of year we will be leaving the EU, the UK is particularly reliant on the short channel crossings for fresh fruit and vegetables.
"In the absence of other action from government, some food prices are likely to increase, and there is a risk that consumer behaviour could exacerbate, or create, shortages in this scenario." (remember the scenes in UK supermarkets when adverse weather affected the courgette and iceberg lettuce crops and prices rocketed???)
There are worries here in Spain that the UK may seek to do business with countries outside of the EU in order to secure goods at more advantageous prices. Murcian tomato producers are particularly concerned about the competition from Morocco, where production costs are lower than in Spain.
Although transport costs will be higher to the UK, the advantageous source prices could make Spanish tomatoes, produced in the EU, less attractive to UK purchasers and result in the loss of millions of euros worth of orders should there be a no deal exit.
The United Kingdom is the third most important destination country for Murcian products, with a market share of 9.24 percent of total regional exports.
Tariffs both ways
During the first nine months of the year, Spain imported 6.7 billion euros worth of products from the UK. The tariffs will also work the other way round, and during this same time period, the Murcia Region imported 247 million euros worth of goods from the UK, a growth of 233.06 percent.
EU premiers keeping out of the negotiations
Although Boris Johnson has indicated his willingness to hold talks directly with his EU counterparts, EU leaders are keeping away from any direct contact with the British premier and insisting that the negotiations are undertaken only by the negotiating team representing the interests of all nations within the EU trading bloc.
On Friday European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said no deal was the most probable end to "difficult" talks.
And Boris Johnson maintains his position that the EU needed to make a "big change" over the main sticking points on fishing rights and business competition rules, the combination of which could well mean the worst-case scenario for both Murcian and Spanish businesses exporting produce to the UK.
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