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ARCHIVED - Murcia health minister warns that more hard days lie ahead
Obeying the lockdown restrictions is vital to limit the spread of Covid-19 and the duration of the emergency
A worst-case scenario could see the emergency last until June
Manuel Villegas, the minister for Health in the regional government of Murcia, warned on Saturday that mathematical projections forecasting the development of the coronavirus pandemic in Spain predict that another “12 hard days” lie ahead, while again re-stating that it is of vital importance to continue abiding by the lockdown restrictions in order to limit both the severity and the duration of the current emergency.
As of Monday morning in the Region of Murcia 939 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed, causing the deaths of 25 patients, but it is widely accepted that the real figures are likely to be as much as ten times higher in terms of infections. Numerous reports have been received of people phoning the regional coronavirus emergency number after presenting possible symptoms of the virus but then not hearing from the health service again, due no doubt to the widely reported shortage of rapid testing kits – there is no news concerning when they might arrive in Murcia - and medical personnel.
This makes it impossible to know the true spread of the pandemic in the Costa Cálida, and even more vital that people should remain at home unless it is absolutely necessary to go out.
Sr Villegas also added that more and more is becoming known about how the virus acts. Contagion usually occurs around 48 hours before the appearance of the first symptoms, and if the condition of the patient worsens it is generally between the 5th and the 7th day of infection. Even after recovery, it is still positive for patients to test positive a month later.
Failure to obey the lockdown could mean the emergency lasting until June
The minister also thanked the public in general for all the messages of support for the health service and its staff, who are in the “front line” during the current emergency, before stressing once again the absolute need to abide by the current lockdown restrictions. After the national government overturned the Murcia ban on shops opening in tourist areas on Sundays he again voiced the opinion that the longer shops remain closed, the better.
In terms of forecasting how long the current crisis might last, the statement that “there are 12 hard days ahead, according to the mathematicians” should not be taken to mean that after that period matters will in any way become easy. One of the mathematical forecasting models quoted in the press analyses three possible scenarios and even in the best of them “stabilization” of the situation will not be reached until the end of April, with 2,000 cases in Murcia.
On the other hand, if the lockdown is not properly obeyed and enforced it may have an effectiveness of only 65 per cent in halting the spread of Covid-19, and this would mean the current outbreak of the pandemic lasting until June, with the number of cases in Murcia rising to approximately 5,000. Even slight variations in the effectiveness of the lockdown could lead to significant differences in the numbers of cases and fatalities, and it is also important to understand that the confinement of people to their homes is likely to last long after a peak in the number of new cases is reached.
The figures and dates produced are merely the product of mathematical simulations and should not be taken as predictions. However, it is clear as the end of March approaches that the degree to which the lockdown is taken seriously is vital in determining the eventual number of cases and victims, and the length of time the restrictions will last.
Remember: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN. STAY AT HOME. STAY SAFE AND DO YOUR BIT TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS.
Follow Murcia Today on Facebook to keep up to date with all the latest updates locally for the Region of Murcia and the main information for the rest of Spain: https://www.facebook.com/MurciaToday/.
Our local area groups are as follows. These are designed to filter locally specific information and may be used by clubs, charities, any of the businesses who work with us to ensure information is available to residents in English and for those living in the specific areas. They are not buy and sell groups, do not accept any bickering or argumentative so and so's, are not "open for any old rubbish" pages, and are not trying to compete with your local comunity groups, they are specifically for sharing good, relevant local information and we hope you will use them for that during this difficult time.
Around Mazarrón news, events and local info: Click to join
Mazarrón, Fuente Álamo, Águilas, Lorca, Totana, Puerto Lumbreras, Camposol, Alhama de Murcia. Click to join (all within a half hour drive of each other)
Mar Menor news, events and local info. Click to join (this includes all the Mar Menor municipalities and Cartagena)
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What to do if you are in the Region of Murcia and believe you may have contracted the virus
The regional government has set up a special helpline to supply information to members of the public (900 121212) if they suspect that they may have contracted the virus rather than going straight to hospital or to a medical centre.
Sensible precautions
The advice being issued to members of the public by medical authorities all over the world coincides on the following points:
- Wash hands frequently with either soap and water or a sanitiser gel
- Catch coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues – and throw the tissues away immediately after use before immediately washing your hands!
- If you don’t have a tissue, use your sleeve – and wash the item of clothing used at the next opportunity
- AVOID touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands
- AVOID close contact with people who are unwell
- Don´t panic!
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