Date Published: 01/12/2020
ARCHIVED - Risk of third wave of Covid in Spain leads to caution over Christmas de-escalation
ARCHIVED ARTICLE Warning signs are flashing insistently following a busy weekend with city centres packed as shoppers flocked to see the Christmas lights
Images; Christmas lights in Huelva this weekend
There is no denying the fact that the second wave of coronavirus contagion in Spain has been slowed by the restrictions on movement and social gatherings during November, but concerns are already being raised over the potentially disastrous consequences of relaxing those restrictions too significantly or too soon.
The 14-day Covid incidence rate in Spain has fallen by around 50 per cent to 275 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, but while the national government and its counterparts in the 17 regions of the country prepare to allow greater socializing and movement over the Christmas and New Year holidays many are already taking about the inevitability of a third wave if this de-escalation is not treated responsibly. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is in favour of erring on the side of caution, warning that the third wave of the pandemic will come at a “critical stage” and will coincide with the availability of the first vaccines.
Last weekend saw the switching on of Christmas lights in the streets of numerous major cities, and it was alarming to see large crowds of people, some without face masks, enjoying the spectacle (and venturing out to hunt for Black Friday bargains) in Madrid, Barcelona, Zaragoza and Málaga among others. The result has been a rapid change in the tone of the messages being transmitted by political leaders, who are calling for responsible behaviour on the part of both the authorities and members of the public rather than clamouring for the right to enjoy festive dinners in large family groups over the festive season.
The warnings are based on the experiences of cities such as Zaragoza, where the Fiestas del Pilar in mid-October were followed by a sharp spike in coronavirus case numbers, while in Italy the fear of a third wave is so great that the government has already announced that the curfew will not be lifted or relaxed on the grounds that to relax restrictions now could lead to a “massacre”. Slightly less dramatic but equally cautious is the message given by Pedro Sánchez, that the best Christmas present the government can give this year is safety, rather than permission to organize large family gatherings.
Whether the Spanish are ready to listen to such warnings will be put to the test over the coming weekend, which is a long one due to there being national holidays on Sunday 6th and Tuesday 8th December and many people (including schoolteachers and pupils) creating a “bridge” with a day off on Monday. Juanma Moreno, the president of the regional government in Andalucía, reiterated on Sunday that “it is in our hands” to avoid the dreaded third wave, while the Mayor of Madrid, José Luis Martínez-Almeida, adds that it is possible to enjoy the city and its lights while at the same time remaining cautious and responsible.
In this context it is worth remembering that the incidence rate of COvid-19 is still far too high for comfort. When the national state of emergency accompanying the first wave of the pandemic was lifted on 21st June the 14-day rate stood at 8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, whilst despite the recent improvement the latest data on 30th November show a rate of 275: thirty-four times higher than just over 5 months ago and eleven times the target of 25 which has been mentioned by the government.
In addition, health service administrators are warning that hospitals are not prepared for a third wave and that resources in intensive care units are still over-stretched, and while national and regional governments debate a plan for Christmas and the New Year it seems hard to argue that the desire to enjoy Christmas should be allowed to override the case for caution.