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ARCHIVED - Spain passes 40,000 deaths from coronavirus, but unofficial total is more than 60,000
The UK passed the 50,000 deaths marker on the same day
The second wave of coronavirus is gradually harvesting its dead and both Spain and the UK passed significant milestones (or should that be tombstones) on Wednesday, Spain passing the 40,000 deaths mark and the UK reaching 50,000 and becoming the country with the highest official number of deaths in Europe.
On Wednesday the Spanish Ministry of Health reported 349 deaths and 19,096 coronavirus cases, taking the fatalities total to 40,105 and the total number of cases diagnosed to date to 1,417,709.
It’s important to understand that the official death count in Spain only recognises cases that have been diagnosed using a PCR test, a situation which has resulted in many deaths from coronavirus not being included in the official totals.
During the first wave of the virus for example, more than 20,000 elderly people are known to have died in care homes and residencias through coronavirus, but their deaths were never included in the official statistics, as in the first wave health resources were totally overwhelmed and there simply weren´t the PCR tests available that there are now.
The report written by the body which represents the interests of care homes stated that over 20,000 people had died within their installations, figures which had not been included in official Ministry stats, figures backed up by the statistics produced from the National Statistics Institute (INE) and the Carlos III Institute which produces figures known as the MoMo, both of which relate to the “excess in deaths” and are normally used to calculate flu deaths outside of the hospital system.
Statistically, there is a very stable pattern to deaths, and spikes in deaths over and above what would normally be expected, are very clear looking from a statistical perspective, so it is always very obvious when periods of heatwave have occurred or when the annual flu season peaks, as this is reflected in the number of deaths that occur throughout Spain.
There has been a significant increase this year over and above the normal death statistics, co-inciding with the coronavirus pandemic, and both sets of figures clearly reflect the “uncounted deaths”, making the “true” death toll much higher.
A similar picture is known to exist in other countries, including the UK, and although it is likely that the true number of deaths caused by covid will never be actually known, the final estimates are likely to be considerably higher than the official statistics produced by national health ministries.
In the case of Spain, the MoMo figures produced by the Carlos III Institute in Madrid calculate an excess of deaths of 62,988, compared to what is expected and the INE quotes 61,732 more deaths compared to 2019.
The Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo) estimates that this year there have been two periods in which more people have died than is normal: the first between March 10th and May 9th, when there were 44,592 more deaths than usual, (the official Health figure in this period was 27,291 deaths from Covid) and a second that extends from July 20th and that has not yet concluded in which 18,396 more deaths have been registered (10,424 with confirmed coronavirus taken from official Ministry stats). In total, the MoMo estimates 62,988 excess deaths during the pandemic, 28,386 more than the official figure of the ministry.
The National Institute of Statistics estimates that up to week 43 of this year (that is, the last week of October), 61,732 more people had died in Spain than in 2019. In that same period, Health reported 37,885 deaths from coronavirus, that is, 23,847 less than those estimated by the INE.
Not all of these excessive deaths are directly attributable to coronavirus disease, but these figures do echo the damage caused indirectly by the pandemic, such as deaths from life-threatening ailments that went untreated during the collapse of hospitals in March and April or those that would not have occurred under normal operating circumstances of the health system.
The number of cases reported falls a little, but the pressure on hospitals increases.
A further 19,096 positive cases were registered this Wednesday - almost 6,000 less than last Wednesday - the lowest figure seen on a Wednesday since October 14th. The regions reporting the highest number of cases were Andalusia (3,416), Catalonia (3,042), Madrid (2,205) and the Valencian Community (1,934).
The number of cases per 100,000 of population fell slightly compared to the previous day, although this time more markedly. The latest data is 514.25 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days on average in Spain, 2% less than on Tuesday (25 is the accepted level for the pandemic being considered as under control). The communities with the highest incidence are Aragón (947.7), Navarra (865.9) and Castilla y León (845.83), although the first two have experienced significant drops when compared to the figures reported in the last days of October.
However, as anticipated, the number of hospitalized patients has risen again, by half a percent, to 21,051 people currently admitted with Covid (108 more than on Tuesday), representing a pressure of 16.8% on average in Spain.
In the case of ICUs, the number of hospitalized patients continues to rise and stands at 3,093 (almost 1% more than on Tuesday), occupying 31.8% of all available beds in Spanish ICUs.
Click for original source data Wednesday 11th November
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