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ARCHIVED - Statistical model predicts coronavirus peak in Murcia on 10th April with 129 deaths
The stricter the lockdown, the better, according to mathematical forecasting
A mathematical forecasting model devised by a professor of Economics at the Centro Universitario de la Defensa in San Javier, César Nebot, is reported by the regional press to predict that the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in the Region of Murcia will not be reached for another two weeks or so, with the number of deaths likely to reach approximately 129.
The study (one of many being produced along the same lines at present) also suggests that a strict lockdown has the effect of reducing the number of people infected by 65 per cent, while also allowing 23 per cent of the expected fatalities to be avoided, and for this reason the conclusions advocate the imposition of more stringent restrictions.
Sr Nebot expects the peak of the epidemic in Murcia to arrive on 10th April - or, in the case of a better effectiveness of the confinement, 17th April - by which time he says that if the confinement were not effective at all there would be 2,800 confirmed cases and 168 fatalities. However, if the confinement proves to be 80 per cent effective the equivalent figures will be approximately 1,800 cases and 129 fatalities, also adding that these numbers are only approximations.
The economist is also at pains to point out that these figures are the product of a mathematical exercise, and should be taken as no more than an indicator (adding that he sincerely hopes that he is proved to be over-pessimistic). However, what seems clear in the Region of Murcia is that after ten days of lockdown the worst of the coronavirus emergency is still to come, and that by the time the current period of confinement ends on 12th April it is highly likely that it will have been extended in order to continue to contain the spread of Covid-19.
On Monday the regional government revealed that there are more than 7,500 suspected cases in the region which it has not been possible to test yet due to a lack of testing kits. All of these individuals are suspected to be positive and are being monitored via telephone contact, although they are not officially confirmed cases, highlighting the spread of the virus and reinforcing the need to respect the lockdown.
On Wednesday 25th March at 21.00 the regional health service (SMS) reported that during the day the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases had risen from 477 to 596, an increase of almost 25 per cent in just 24 hours, while the number of people admitted to hospital rose from 127 to 172. The coronavirus death toll in Murcia rose to 8, the latest fatalities being two men in their 80s who died in hospital in Yecla and in the Reina Sofía hospital in the centre of the city of Murcia. Both men suffered already existing medical conditions.
At the same time, as the night began there were 36 coronavirus patients in intensive care, all of which indicates that the figures above may not be so far-fetched as some may believe.
Remember: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN. STAY AT HOME. STAY SAFE AND DO YOUR BIT TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS.
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Mazarrón, Fuente Álamo, Águilas, Lorca, Totana, Puerto Lumbreras, Camposol, Alhama de Murcia. Click to join (all within a half hour drive of each other)
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What to do if you are in the Region of Murcia and believe you may have contracted the virus
The regional government has set up a special helpline to supply information to members of the public (900 121212), and also urges people to call the 112 emergency services line if they suspect that they may have contracted the virus rather than going straight to hospital or to a medical centre. Medical staff will be sent to your home to test for the virus.
The Region’s public hospitals have limited the number of visitors to just one per patient.
Sensible precautions
The advice being issued to members of the public by medical authorities all over the world coincides on the following points:
- Wash hands frequently with either soap and water or a sanitiser gel
- Catch coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues – and throw the tissues away immediately after use before immediately washing your hands!
- If you don’t have a tissue, use your sleeve – and wash the item of clothing used at the next opportunity
- AVOID touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands
- AVOID close contact with people who are unwell
- Don´t panic!
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