Date Published: 22/10/2020
ARCHIVED - Tourism in Spain set back 25 years by the Covid-19 pandemic, say Exceltur
ARCHIVED ARTICLE
The latest estimate is that the sector will lose 106 billion euros of revenue this year
The Exceltur organization, which seeks to promote excellence and development in the Spanish tourism sector, now estimates that the amount of revenue generated within the sector this year will be 106,000 million euros lower than in 2019, effectively taking the sector back to a level of activity last seen 25 years ago.
Needless to say, this disastrous expectation has been caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and José Luis Zoreda of Exceltur adds that the figures on their own do not tell the whole story: a quarter of a century ago there was far less capacity within the sector, and the increase in the size of tourism since then exacerbates the seriousness of the decline still further.
Like many others, Exceltur are constantly adjusting their forecasts as the extent of the second wave of the pandemic becomes more and more apparent, and the latest estimate is that the loss in revenue will be 7,500 million euros greater than was predicted in August. In effect this means that the level of activity in the sector this year is likely to fall by a massive 70 per cent, and at present it appears that there is little or no hope that the final quarter of the year will in any way provide respite for the businesses which are struggling to survive.
A survey of the members of Exceltur which was completed on 1st October reveals that on average the expectation is that revenue this year will fall by 77.6 per cent – 16 points more than was the case in August and a reflection of how the “second wave” has dashed any hopes of being able to save something positive from 2020.
At the same time, the level of optimism regarding the outlook for 2021 also appears to be falling: two months ago 51.2 per cent of those surveyed believed that they would be able to return to previous levels of activity next year, but now as many as 46.1 per cent believe that will not be possible until 2022 and another 43.7 per cent are of the opinion that “normality” will not be resumed until at least 2023.
Inevitably, as the forecasts grow more and more pessimistic for the short and medium term there are fears that more and more concerns will be forced out of business, and Exceltur warns that “massive job losses” are likely, affecting up to 750,000 people by the end of next year.
In many ways, of course, these grim predictions should not come as a surprise. Although domestic tourism is very strong in Spain the importance of international visitors cannot be underestimated, and the lack of air traffic since the pandemic began has meant the decimation of the sector. The IAG group, which operates the airlines Iberia, IAG, Vueling and Aer Lingus, reports an 83 per cent drop in turnover in the third quarter, recording a loss of 1,300 million euros after a profit of 1,425 million euros in the same period last year, while the latest figures published by Aena, which manages almost all of Spain’s airports, report a fall of 80 per cent in September passenger numbers and of 90 per cent in those on board international flights.