Date Published: 17/12/2020
ARCHIVED - Two weeks is a long time in this pandemic; AI rates resuming an upward trend in Spain again
ARCHIVED ARTICLE
Concern is growing as the downward trend begins to reverse
As the national and regional governments in Spain attempt to hit upon formulae which will make it possible to avoid a third wave of coronavirus infections before mass vaccination ensures that a sizeable proportion of the population is immunized, the accumulated 14-day incidence rate has begun to rise gradually and an analysis of the data available shows that the current situation is more worrying in the offshore Islands, which had managed to keep their case numbers right down, than in any other part of the country.
During the last month the rate of new cases reported per 100,000 of population has dropped considerably right across the country, with every region reporting considerable falls in the number of new cases reported, but in the last few days the gains secured in the last month are slowly being eroded as the number of cases starts to increase again.
The offshore islands in particular, are starting to show a significant increase, mainly because their figures were so low to start with. As recently as 1st December the incidence rate in the islands was one of the lowest in the country at 198, but that figure has now risen by 47 per cent to 292, moving the Balearics up 15 places from almost at the bottom of the list to the top of the list of Spain’s 17 regions. The rate has also risen slightly in Madrid to 237, the fourth highest figure reported, which has moved up 9 places in just a few days, while despite dropping appreciably from a month ago, the Basque Country and Castilla-La Mancha occupy second and third spots as the number of cases there starts to increase again.
The only regions to have remained in the same position in this peculiar league table are Cantabria (5th) and the Canaries, where despite a 50 per cent increase in the last fortnight the rate is still the lowest in Spain at 118.
The figures for the last few days have given rise to increasing concern over the possibility of a third wave.
Two weeks, though, can be a long time in the context of the pandemic, and the most recent data in Madrid and Catalunya are particularly worrying as the two regions account for almost a third of Spain’s population. The latest daily figures in Madrid showed 14 deaths and 2,452 new cases, while in Catalunya a further 62 deaths and 2,112 cases are reported, and the infection risk index has also shown an increase in Castilla y León.
In the light of these figures it has been announced in Catalunya that the return to school after Three Kings is to be put back three days, the intention being to create a longer gap between the inevitable family gatherings on 5th and 6th January and the return of pupils to classrooms. With the region of Madrid announcing new preventative measures on Friday it seems possible that further preventative measures could be adopted in and around the national capital, and in all parts of the country as the regional governments are empowered to adopt additional strategies should they see fit to do so.
The list below shows the current order in the AI rates of the regions and the change in their position in the league table
Region/15th December/7th December/Change in position, up or down
Balearics/291/198/+15
Basque Country/266/394/+1
Castilla La Mancha/239/273/+5
Madrid/237/233/+9
Cantabria/236/337/the same
Valencia region/227/248/+4
Aragón/225/337/-1
Asturias/220/392/-4
La Rioja/211/408/-8
Catalunya/209/233/-2
Navarra/194/262/-2
Castilla y León /185/403/-10
Galicia/167/231/-1
Extremadura/155/226/-1
Murcia/145/238/-4
Andalucia/140/294/-9
Canaries/117/78/same position