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Are we headed for the hottest summer ever?

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The people of Murcia are among the Europeans who suffered the most thermal stress last year due to “very strong heat”

Are we headed for the hottest summer ever?

Spain has registered, for the first time so far this year, temperatures in excess of 40ºC/104ºF, and we are not even into summer proper yet. While many welcome the hot temperatures for the pleasant beach and pool days, there are fears that we could see a repeat of the last couple of summers, which brought us the two hottest years on record, and many deaths related to extreme heat.

During the hot summer of 2023, the Region of Murcia was one of the places in Europe that suffered the most days of what’s known as ‘thermal stress’. In the corner of southern Spain, around 40 days were recorded between June and September when the real-feel temperature ranged between 38 and 46ºC.

Europe in general is the continent that warms up the fastest in the summer months and according to the State of the Climate in Europe (ESOTC) report published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, temperatures here are increasing at around double the average global rate.

In fact, it concludes that 2023 was the second warmest year in history after 2022, meaning that the three warmest years recorded in Europe have occurred since 2020, and the 10 warmest since 2007.

This week, India has reported its first heat-related death of the year after a labourer died of heatstroke in New Delhi, which recorded temperatures as high as 52.9ºC.

Some experts have claimed that summer 2024 will be slightly cooler than previous years thanks to the effects of La Niña, but data suggests that there is a general trend year-on-year for progressively warmer temperatures.

Copernicus have not predicted what might happen in summer 2024, but one of the main alerts from ESOTC is that in 2023 Europe experienced a record number of days with “extreme heat stress” when the temperatures reached a whopping 46ºC and a growing trend in the number of days with at least “strong heat stress,” when the mercury hovered between a real-feel of 38 and 46ºC.

Last summer, most of the south of Spain recorded more than 30 days of “very strong thermal stress” but Andalucía was undoubtedly the worst affected region, reporting an astonishing 80 days where the extreme heat placed residents at risk.

These temperatures have a profound impact on our health and prolonged exposure can increase the chances of developing illnesses like exhaustion and heat stroke.

The ESOTC report highlights that heat-related mortality has increased by 30% in the last 20 years and it is estimated that heat-related deaths have increased in 94% of the European areas monitored, including the Region of Murcia itself.

The study shows that in recent decades, extreme heat has been, by far, the main cause of deaths due to extreme weather and climate events in Europe. Between 55,000 and 72,000 deaths were estimated in each summer of 2003, 2010 and 2022 across Europe from heat waves. There is no estimate available yet for 2023.

The ESOTC adds that “the most affected regions are in the centre and south of the Iberian Peninsula, where additional deaths are increasing between 40 and 50 per million people each year.”

In the Region of Murcia this figure is somewhat lower, according to this report, which sets it at between 20 and 30 more deaths per year per million inhabitants.

While the data are only preliminary, the Ministry of Health registered 11 deaths due to high temperatures in Murcia last summer, which places the Region as the second-lowest in Spain.

Find all the latest weather and climate change news here or join our Murcia Weather Watch Facebook group for regular updates

Images: ESOTC

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