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Date Published: 06/11/2024

How Donald Trump's victory could impact Spain and Europe

Trump’s ‘America First’ mantra is already causing concern in Spain

Love him or loathe him, it looks like Donald Trump is back to stay, pulling off an incredible comeback to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 US elections and securing his return to the White House.

But before the final votes have even been tallied, fears are growing that the magnate’s re-election could pose a major challenge to US-EU relations.

From trade to military aid for Ukraine, the Republican’s stance is causing concern in Spain and Europe, especially given his well-voiced ‘America First’ approach.

One of the most pressing concerns is Trump's intention to reduce US support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. Since the Russian invasion in 2022, Washington has been one of Kiev's main allies, providing billions of dollars in military assistance.

However, Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to reduce this aid, suggesting that Europe should take on more responsibility for financing Ukrainian defences.

Trump has also claimed that he could “fix the war in 24 hours” through a deal with Vladimir Putin, although he has not provided specific details. This approach has worried many European and Ukrainian leaders, who see the proposal as an attempt to weaken Kiev’s position and grant geopolitical advantages to Russia.

It’s no secret that Trump has been a long-time critic of NATO's funding structure, demanding that European allies increase their defence spending. If he wins, which is all but certain at this stage, he could insist that the United States not defend NATO members that fail to meet a goal of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defence.

On the economic front, Trump has suggested imposing tariffs of up to 10% on all imports, with a 60% tariff targeting Chinese products. This is great news for home-grown businesses as it strengthens their market position, but it could spell disaster in Spain and further afield.

For the EU overall, whose trade in goods with the US reached 870 billion euros in 2022, this move would be a significant blow, particularly in relation to the automotive and technology sectors.

Trump's re-election could also strengthen ultra-conservative movements in Europe, such as those led by Viktor Orbán in Hungary or Giorgia Meloni in Italy. These leaders, who share some nationalist and anti-EU stances, would be natural allies for Trump in his possible attempt to divide the European bloc to advance his own agenda.

As the world waits with bated breath to see how Trump's re-election will play out, one thing is certain: the impact on Spain and Europe will be significant.

Will Trump's ‘America First’ approach lead to a strengthening of US-EU relations, or will it drive a wedge between the two blocs? Only time will tell.

In other news: Sales of electric vehicles remain stagnant in Spain for 2024

Image: Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia Commons

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