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ARCHIVED - Spanish Government acknowledges publicly that British variant could be more lethal and is spreading
The variant is known to be present in 14 regions of Spain and the government has already accepted that it is more contagious and is likely to become the dominant strain
A Murcian analyst says that the highest figures of the pandemic are yet to come if the spread of the new variants is not controlled.
It’s intensely frustrating for all of us watching the progress of the coronavirus pandemic, as there are so many variables influencing the situation and making it impossible for the authorities to give a clear indication of when we can expect some sort of return to normality.
Although the vaccine roll-out in the UK is proceeding rapidly, the situation in Europe is totally different, and here the lack of vaccines is seriously hampering any possibility of a swift return to normality.
It’s also leaving us more vulnerable to the potential effects of the new variants which are emerging, and although the Spanish Health Ministry has initially been reluctant to publicly accept the risks posed by the more contagious variants which have emerged elsewhere, it is now publicly acknowledging its concerns about the British, or Kent variant as it’s now being called, as well as the South African and Brazilian variants.
On Friday afternoon the Ministry of Health admitted that there is "a real possibility" that the British variant of the coronavirus, already present in 14 regions of Spain, could be more lethal as well as more contagious and has warned that it could lead to an increase in case numbers, hospitalizations and fatalities "in the coming weeks."
The statement came following publication of the latest update of the document entitled "Circulation of VOC 202012/01 (B.1.1.7) and other variants of SARS-CoV-2 of interest to public health in Spain", in which it reiterates that the British or Kent variant, is associated with a greater capacity for transmission, "which may be associated with a higher incidence of the disease in places where it circulates widely and prevention measures are not strictly applied."
The document, prepared by the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES), indicates that until this Friday more than 400 cases have been reported in 14 communities: Madrid, Andalusia, Cantabria, Balearic Islands, Valencian Community, Asturias, Murcia, Castilla -La Mancha, Castilla y León, Basque Country, Galicia, Extremadura, Navarra, and Catalonia.
The report does not specify exactly how many cases have been detected in Spain, but the number of cases is certainly increasing. On Thursday, the director of the CCAES, Fernando Simón, who regularly presents the covid data on behalf of the Spanish government, estimated the number of confirmed cases at 449, with another 55 under study (this week the Murcia Government confirmed an increase from 16 to 30 cases detected in Murcia).
Initially, most of those detected were epidemiologically related to the United Kingdom, but now several communities have reported cases in which an epidemiological link could not be established, which means that the variant is now spreading outside of the primary source of infection.
According to the report, the distribution of this variant "is highly variable" in different parts of the country. In week 4 of 2021 the estimated prevalence was given as 20.3% in the Balearic Islands, 0.4% in Castilla-La Mancha, 53.3% in Galicia or 4% in the Basque Country.
However, it concludes that its presence "is increasing rapidly", which "may condition an increase in the incidence and possibly the rate of hospitalization and fatality in our country in the coming weeks." "In addition, there is a real possibility that it could be related to greater severity and greater lethality. The risk of a progressive increase in hospitalizations associated with the increasing circulation of the variant is therefore high, both due to the increase of the incidence as by the increase of the gravity ".
Although B.1.1.7 was not initially associated with changes in the severity of the disease, the Health Ministry has now come to the conclusion that it could be, echoing more recent studies from the United Kingdom that suggest that it could be associated with an increase in fatality in all age groups. However, there is also evidence that it does not affect the ability to neutralize antibodies in people immunized with complete vaccination schedules, "so it is likely that the estimated efficacy of the different currently available vaccines will be maintained."
Providing, of course, that more vaccines are administered in Spain; progress is currently very slow, with only 1,988,160 doses adminstered in all of Spain. 682,909 people have received 2 doses, but this is still a woefully inadequate vaccination response to the current situation and need to vaccinate, due entirely to the lack of vaccines within Europe.
The new update confirms the existence of two cases of the South African and none of the Brazilian variant in Spain.
In addition:
A UMU study predicts that the biggest wave of the pandemic will arrive in spring if the new strains become dominant
Professor of Physics at the University of Murcia (UMU), Antonio Guirao Piñera, who carries out simulations on the evolution of the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus using mathematical models within the framework of a project approved by the Carlos III Health Institute, and who has successfully forecast the evolution of the virus to date with a good degree of accuracy, has issued a new set of models. He warns that there could be an acceleration in the growth of the pandemic during the spring, whose effect could be even greater than that of any of the waves suffered so far if the new variants of the virus became dominant, due prinicipally to these being between 40 and 70% more contagious.
If so, the control measures currently implemented "would progressively lose effectiveness", he states, warning that "much more restrictive measures would be necessary to keep the epidemic under control as long as the effect of immunization was not significant." This risk is greater "the higher the incidence of the epidemic”.
For this reason, Guirao believes that "it is necessary to maintain the current restrictive measures for a prolonged period until they reach very low incidence levels” which would allow better control of the possible effects of the new variants."
He has also warned about the risk of not doing enough daily tests, as they can make us underestimate the incidence of the virus. An example, he said, was the data for this Thursday, announced this Friday, which "are clearly undervalued: 1,200 tests less than the previous day, but showing a higher level of positivity."
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