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ARCHIVED - Tinsa report December fall in Mediterranean coastal property values
A year-on-year increase of just 1.2 per cent across Spain confirms the slowdown in the market
The leading Spanish property valuation firm Tinsa published its latest batch of monthly data regarding the market value of housing across the country on Tuesday morning, reporting that in the month of December the recovery in market prices of recent years continued to stall.
The year-on–year increase of just 1.2 per cent was the twelfth consecutive rise of under 5 per cent and the lowest for a few years, and in Mediterranean coastal areas there has been a downward movement of 4.6 per cent since December 2018. At the same time the nationwide index fell during the month of December by 19 points to 1,511.
In consequence, the firm reports that the figure is now just 15.3 per cent higher than when the market bottomed out in February 2015, but 33.8 per cent lower than at the height of the boom in late 2007.
The staggered nature of the recovery can be seen in the breakdown of the figures, which shows that in Spain’s regional capitals and other large cities market values have risen by over 25 per cent in the last three and a half years, while elsewhere there are increases of 23 per cent in the Balearic and Canary Islands and 14 per cent in “metropolitan areas”, but only 4.9 per cent in the catch-all category of “other municipalities”.
The December figures show the sharpest year-on-year increase in metropolitan areas (2.8 per cent) and regional capitals and other large cities (2.4 per cent), while elsewhere there was a rise of 1.2 per cent in the Canaries and the Balearics and prices remained constant in “other municipalities”.
The latest bulletin also contains the monthly “market snapshot”, in which Tinsa highlight reasons to expect upward or downward movements in the value of homes in Spain, summarizing the following indicators among others:
- Sales figures: the latest monthly data (for October) show a 1.6 per cent year-on-year decrease and an accumulated fall during the first 10 months of the year of 2.6 per cent.
- Building licences: the latest monthly data (for October) show a 7.2 per cent year-on-year increase and an 8.7 cent rise over the first ten months of 2019.
- Mortgages granted: coinciding with the drop in sales figures, the latest monthly data (for October) show a 2.2 per cent year-on-year decrease but a 1 per cent rise during the first 10 months of the year.
- Unemployment: the latest monthly data (for December) show a 1.21 per cent year-on-year decrease during the last 12 months, the least positive figure for years despite the seasonal fall over Christmas and the new year.
- Euribor: the interest rate on which most mortgage repayments in Spain are calculated is currently at -0.261% (the average for the month of December), and continues to rise from the record low of August.
In general these factors point to rather less certainty over the nature of future developments than has been the case for the last couple of years. Especially eye-catching are the poor sales figures in recent months, but none of the most recent data as summarized above can be said to be conducive to optimism regarding a rise in market value in the immediate future.
The Spanish property market, though, is far from uniform, and national averages tend to distort the picture: there are regions where the outlook is rosier than in others, but in overall terms it appears that the demand for housing across the country may have reached a natural peak, and that in consequence there is less upward pressure on market value.
In short, the recovery continues to look rather more fragile than has been the case for the last couple of years, and the downward movement in property values in the Mediterranean underlines the uncertainty.
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