ARCHIVED - Covid death toll in Spain could be as high as 80,000 says National Statistics Institute

Spain registered 20 per cent more deaths from all causes in 2020 than in 2019

The latest daily Covid bulletin published yesterday by Spain’s Ministry of Health reported a further 195 fatalities concerning patients diagnosed with Covid-19, taking the official total up to 52,878, but at the same time separate data published by the government’s central statistics unit indicate that in reality the figure could be almost 40 per cent higher.

The estimated number of deaths from all causes in Spain between the middle of March and the 27th December last year came to 391,398, which represents an increase of 80,202 over the same period in 2019, and without any other major catastrophes or diseases to explain the difference it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the pandemic is the factor behind the increase.

Following the spring various reports and studies pointed to covid being the reason behind the excess deaths; studies from the organisations representing care home owners confirmed that 20,000 elderly residents had died in care homes within the first wave, but had not undertaken a formal PCR test as these were not available at the time, furthermore, other statistics produced by the funeral directors, councils, regional governments and bodies such as the Carlos III Institute in Madrid all produced similar figures.

Further evidence can be seen in a closer analysis of the statistics, which show that the week with most deaths from all causes last year was between 30th March and 5th April. In that 7-day period, during the first wave of infection, a total of 20,767 deaths were reported, well over double the 8,807 of the equivalent week in 2019, and a second peak was reached in week 45 (from 2nd to 8th November), coinciding with the second wave. This second peak was lower than the first with 10,599 deaths, but it still represented a 38 per cent increase over the same period the year before.

The data also show that the “excess deaths” coinciding with the pandemic concerned 38,438 men and 41,764 women, and that in both sexes the worst-hit age group was that of the over-70s.

In addition, it can be observed that during 2020 the number of deaths in Spain was 20.45 per cent higher than the year before at 499,764, but that the excess which is presumed to have been caused by Covid-19 differs widely from region to region. In Galicia the year-on-year increase is reported to be 6.18 per cent, but at the other end of the scale the data for Madrid show a rise of 41.64 per cent.