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Aemet forecasts warm autumn, especially in southern and eastern Spain

The next few months in Spain should be warm, and drier than usual in parts that normally get more rain

After a summer marked by extreme heat and significant rainfall in some parts, Spain is set to experience a warmer-than-usual autumn in 2024, according to the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet).

The forecast for October, November and December suggests that the south and east of the country will see higher temperatures, continuing the trend seen during the summer in places like Murcia and Alicante. In contrast, the western part of the Iberian Peninsula and the Canary Islands are likely to receive less rainfall than normal, with uncertainty surrounding rainfall patterns in other regions.

A warmer-than-average autumn

This forecast comes after the summer of 2024, which was recorded as the sixth warmest summer in Spain’s historical series. The average temperature in the country over the three-month period from June to August was 23.1°C, one degree higher than the average summer temperature between 1991 and 2020.

Particularly in inland areas, summer was classified as ‘very hot’ or even ‘extremely hot’, according to Aemet spokesperson Rubén del Campo. July and August were especially warm, with the two-month period being the second hottest on record, only surpassed by 2022.

Two notable heatwaves occurred this summer. The first, between July 18 and 20, was short-lived, affecting 11 provinces. However, the second heatwave, from July 23 to August 12, was the second-longest ever recorded in Spain, lasting 21 days and impacting 31 provinces at its peak. This heatwave is second only to the 26-day heatwave of 2015.

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Summer rains

Despite the extreme heat, the summer of 2024 was also one of the wettest. Aemet reported that peninsular Spain received 82.2 litres of rainfall per square metre, 117% of the reference value for the period 1991-2020.

The summer was the sixth wettest of the 21st century, largely due to heavy rainfall in June and August. However, the rainfall patterns were highly uneven – central Spain and parts of the Levante experienced above-average rainfall, while Galicia, Andalucía and the Canary Islands were much drier than usual.

July, by contrast, was especially dry, with little rainfall across most of Spain, continuing a pattern of erratic weather.

Weather outlook for autumn 2024

As for this autumn, Aemet’s forecast suggests that the weather will remain warmer than usual, especially in southern and eastern Spain. Rainfall patterns will be more varied, with the west and Canary Islands seeing less rain than normal, while it remains unclear how the rest of the country will fare in terms of precipitation.

Given the increasingly erratic weather patterns of recent years, it is possible that some regions may experience heavy rains, while others stay dry.

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This autumn forecast appears to be a continuation of the climate trends observed in recent decades. Del Campo pointed out that nine of the 10 warmest summers on record have occurred since 2000, underscoring the ongoing impact of climate change on Spain’s weather patterns.

Find all the latest weather and climate change news here or join our Spain Weather Watch Facebook group for regular updates

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