Date Published: 05/11/2019
ARCHIVED - Pre-election debate hints at another hung parliament in Spain after the voting on Sunday
ARCHIVED ARTICLE
Far-right party Vox could become the third most represented in Congress
Spain is currently preparing for its fourth general election in the four years, and with only six days to go before polling day the only televised debate featuring the major party leaders in a truncated campaign was held on Monday evening as all five parties sought to woo floating voters.
Unfortunately, the debate was in some ways rather a damp squib, with the moderator not permitted to ask questions and the main point of interest being which parties showed signs of being willing to form a post-electoral pact with which others as both right- and left-wing groups struggle to put together a parliamentary majority. The latest opinion polls show that the outcome of the election on Sunday 10th November will almost certainly be yet another hung parliament, although with some significant differences in the way in which the seats are distributed.
Pollsters in Spain have faced an increasingly difficult task in recent years in attempting to predict election results, but the general consensus is that the Pedro Sánchez and the left-wing PSOE, who formed a minority government after the election in April of this year, will see their share of the 350 seats in Congress decrease slightly from the 123 they won last time round, perhaps to around 115. At the same time, the PSOE’s traditional right-wing rival, the PP, stand to see their representation increase from 66 to somewhere close to 100, while the far-right group Vox, which has emerged only over the last two years, could be represented by more than double the 24 MPs elected in April.
Again according to the opinion polls, the big losers are likely to be the two parties which burst onto the Spanish political scene earlier in the decade, the centrist group Ciudadanos and the left-wingers of Podemos (now known as Unidas Podemos). Ciudadanos could see their parliamentary representation drop from the current 57 MPs to around 20, while the likelihood is that Podemos will see their share drop below the 42 seats won seven months ago, partly due to an internal split which resulted in the formation of a breakaway party, Más País.
In this context, the five main party leaders, all of them men (Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE, Pablo Casado of the PP, Santiago Abascal of Vox, Pablo Iglesias of Unidas Podemos and Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos) gathered in a TV studio on Monday to attempt to claim the high ground from each other, while most observers searched for signs that coalitions or pacts might be in the offing. But Pedro Sánchez appeared determined not to form the coalition left-wing government which for the last six months has been demanded by Pablo Iglesias, while Santiago Abascal appeared to indicate that, for the time being at least, he is not prepared to make a pact with anyone.
As for the topics covered in the debate, it came as no surprise that the unrest in Catalunya was the most dwelt on, as Pedro Sánchez appeared willing to contemplate gradually adopting a tougher stance in dealing with the more extreme elements within the pro-independence movement.
In short, then, if the opinion polls are right and if the positions outlined during Monday’s debate remain inflexible, the situation in the Spanish parliament after Sunday will be similar in overall terms to the one which has existed since April, although with important differences. What looks unlikely to change is that no party or alliance of various parties will be able to command a parliamentary majority, while the big difference is that the far right-wing party Vox could well be the third largest group in parliament – for expats living in this country that may be an uncomfortable development, given Santiago Abascal’s insistence on relating immigration to criminal behaviour!
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