ARCHIVED - Real coronavirus case total could be 10 times higher than reported

Insufficient testing leads to numbers being understated and makes stopping the spread of the virus more difficult

Daniel López-Acuña former director of Healthcare in Crisis Situations with the World Health Organization (WHO), stated on Friday morning that the number of people currently affected by the coronavirus is “very probably” ten times higher than the number of officially confirmed cases, due to the shortage of testing facilities both in Spain and throughout the world.

🔴 DIRECTO | "Es muy probable que el número real de personas infectadas sea 10 veces mayor que el número de casos confirmados"

Daniel López-Acuña (@lopezacunad), Ex director de Accion Sanitaria en Situaciones de Crisis de la OMS pic.twitter.com/p2D9Oy57gH

— Las Mañanas de RNE (@LasMananas_rne) March 27, 2020

This ties in with the opinion formed by many on the basis of the latest national statistics announced on Thursday, which detailed 4,165 fatalities among a total of 56,188 cases. If these figures were complete they would imply a fatality rate of around 7 per cent, whereas most analysts believe that the true mortality rate is between 1 and 2 per cent: extrapolating, the 4,000-plus deaths ought to relate to between 200,000 and 400,000 cases, and while Sr López-Acuña estimates a slightly higher figure he is clearly of a similar opinion.

Speaking in an interview on RTVE, Sr López-Acuña expressed optimism that in Spain the upward curve in the number of infections will soon begin to flatten out, even voicing the suspicion that this is already happening in some parts of the country. But he emphasized the importance of the rapid testing facilities which are still being awaited in this country following the discovery that the first batch imported from China were inadequate, since in controlling the pandemic it is vital to identify those infected: if this is not achieved, thousands - or possibly tens or hundreds of thousands - of cases will inevitably go undetected, making it impossible to isolate the patients and prevent the further spread of Covid-19.

Regarding the shortcomings of the products purchased from a Chinese manufacturer Sr López-Acuña accepted that in the current “savage” market conditions such occurrences are unfortunately far from being exceptional.

The importance of being able to test patients believed to be positive is underlined by our own situation here in Murcia. We have less than 700 confirmed cases officially, but earlier this week the regional health authority confirmed that over 7,500 suspected cases were being monitored telephonically as there were insufficient kits available to test them and officially classify them as a "case". All of these are considered mild cases, so the patients are all at home. There are also over 7,500 individuals who have been in close contact with contagious cases and are in isolated lockdown as they may have contracted the virus. Without being able to test these individuals, Murcia continues to report less than 700 cases, the fear being that the public will be lulled into a false sense of security and the virus spread further, or that those who are contagious may continue to spread the virus through contact with their family when they should be in isolation.

One reader has confirmed that she reported her symptoms telephonically and was told to stay at home as her symptoms were mild, but she has never been tested and has now recovered, without having spoken to anyone on the phone again or seeing a medic; she was lucky, she said, her case was mild, but she has no idea if she was even counted as a case, or is now recorded as a recovery. Nobody has even contacted her, so nobody knows the true figures.

Remember: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN. STAY AT HOME. STAY SAFE AND DO YOUR BIT TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS.

Follow Murcia Today on Facebook to keep up to date with all the latest updates locally for the Region of Murcia and the main information for the rest of Spain: https://www.facebook.com/MurciaToday/. 

Our local area groups are as follows. These are designed to filter locally specific information and may be used by clubs, charities, any of the businesses who work with us to ensure information is available to residents in English and for those living in the specific areas. They are not buy and sell groups, do not accept any bickering or argumentative so and so's, are not "open for any old rubbish" pages, and are not trying to compete with your local comunity groups, they are specifically for sharing good, relevant local information and we hope you will use them for that during this difficult time. 

Around Mazarrón news, events and local info: Click to join

Mazarrón, Fuente Álamo, Águilas, Lorca, Totana, Puerto Lumbreras, Camposol, Alhama de Murcia. Click to join (all within a half hour drive of each other)

Mar Menor news, events and local info. Click to join (this includes all the Mar Menor municipalities and Cartagena)

North-west Murcia: Bullas, Mula, Cehegin, Caravaca, Cieza, Calasparra, Jumilla, Moratalla info. Click to join

What to do if you are in the Region of Murcia and believe you may have contracted the virus

The regional government has set up a special helpline to supply information to members of the public (900 121212) if they suspect that they may have contracted the virus rather than going straight to hospital or to a medical centre.

Sensible precautions

The advice being issued to members of the public by medical authorities all over the world coincides on the following points:

- Wash hands frequently with either soap and water or a sanitiser gel

- Catch coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues – and throw the tissues away immediately after use before immediately washing your hands!

- If you don’t have a tissue, use your sleeve – and wash the item of clothing used at the next opportunity

- AVOID touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands

- AVOID close contact with people who are unwell

- Don´t panic!