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ARCHIVED - Study forecasts an end to Covid-19 deaths in Spain in late May
The IHME predicts no more fatalities after 20th May
A study carried out by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle has produced a forecast that the first day on which no Covid-19 deaths will be recorded in Spain will be 20th May.
The IHME is compiling data regarding the coronavirus pandemic from all over the world, including not only the number of confirmed cases and fatalities but also the health service resources in each country and even each region. In the case of Spain the projection is that by Monday 27th April, when children are to be allowed out of their homes for a limited time every day, the daily death toll will have fallen to below 200, before dropping into double figures on 30th April and then, from 10th May onwards – in just over two weeks’ time – to below 10.
These targets may seem a long way off at present – the latest daily update on Wednesday, summarizing the figures for Tuesday, included 435 more fatalities – but the forecasting model has not been wildly inaccurate in comparison with the reality in Spain in recent days. On Monday the prediction was for 456 deaths while the Ministry of Health reported 399 and on Tuesday the forecast of 412 was slightly lower than the actual figure of 430, although on Wednesday the reported death toll of 435 was significantly higher than the 367 expected by the IHME.
Using a running average of daily figures the analysts had predicted a peak in Spain of 950 deaths on 1st April, while the Ministry’s figures showed a maximum of 961 just one day later.
Of course, the study team recognize that a margin of error must be built into any prediction of this nature, but they are confident that by the second half of May the death toll will be down into single figures as Spain gradually emerges from the Covid-19 crisis.
This would appear to be in line with the expectations of the Spanish government, which succeeded on Wednesday in securing a prolongation of the state of emergency until 9th May. During a long and heated debate, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stated that there will be two phases of the de-escalation of the lockdown restrictions over the coming weeks, lasting into the second half of May, during which time “the rules will vary” as Spain adapts to the new reality after the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic has passed.
Remember: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN. STAY AT HOME. STAY SAFE AND DO YOUR BIT TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS.
Follow Murcia Today on Facebook to keep up to date with all the latest updates locally for the Region of Murcia and the main information for the rest of Spain: https://www.facebook.com/MurciaToday/.
Our local area groups are as follows. These are designed to filter locally specific information and may be used by clubs, charities, any of the businesses who work with us to ensure information is available to residents in English and for those living in the specific areas. They are not buy and sell groups, do not accept any bickering or argumentative so and so's, are not "open for any old rubbish" pages, and are not trying to compete with your local comunity groups, they are specifically for sharing good, relevant local information and we hope you will use them for that during this difficult time.
Around Mazarrón news, events and local info: Click to join
Mazarrón, Fuente Álamo, Águilas, Lorca, Totana, Puerto Lumbreras, Camposol, Alhama de Murcia. Click to join (all within a half hour drive of each other)
Mar Menor news, events and local info. Click to join (this includes all the Mar Menor municipalities and Cartagena)
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What to do if you are in the Region of Murcia and believe you may have contracted the virus
The regional government has set up a special helpline to supply information to members of the public (900 121212) if they suspect that they may have contracted the virus rather than going straight to hospital or to a medical centre.
Sensible precautions
The advice being issued to members of the public by medical authorities all over the world coincides on the following points:
- Wash hands frequently with either soap and water or a sanitiser gel
- Catch coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues – and throw the tissues away immediately after use before immediately washing your hands!
- If you don’t have a tissue, use your sleeve – and wash the item of clothing used at the next opportunity
- AVOID touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands
- AVOID close contact with people who are unwell
- Don´t panic!
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