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ARCHIVED - Health Ministry believes that only 1 in 16 Covid cases in Spain has been officially diagnosed
Funeral licence statistics suggest that at least 1,000 fatalities are unaccounted for in Madrid alone
The real number of cases in Spain could be well over 2 million
It has been widely acknowledged that the official statistics regarding the coronavirus pandemic in Spain, shocking though they are, are seriously understated due to the number of tests performed having been limited, but there is now a growing body of evidence indicating that this applies not only to the “real” number of people infected but also to the number of fatalities reported.
As of Tuesday morning the official data stated a death toll across the country of 13,798, including 5,371 in the region of Madrid, but the national capital is one of the areas where there is a notable discrepancy between the figures provided and other sources of information.
This is the case, for example, with a report published by the regional High Court in Madrid on Tuesday stating that 9,007 burial and cremation licences were issued between 14th and 31st March, while the number of “official” coronavirus deaths in the region was stated at 3,539. If both of these figures are accepted as accurate then the deduction would be that around 5,500 people in Madrid died of other causes during the period, whereas in the whole of March in the previous two years the number of deaths registered was between 4,100 and 4,400: in other words, well over 1,000 deaths would seem to be unaccounted for in statistical terms.
A similar case is that of the region of Castilla-La Mancha, where the health service registered 965 coronavirus fatalities in March while the number of burial licences granted reached 3,139. Given that in the previous two years the numbers of March deaths in the region were 1,691 and 1,826, in this case there are between 300 and 500 deaths which may have slipped through the Covid-19 detection net.
The reason for the daily figures published by the Ministry of Health possibly failing to take into account other coronavirus-related deaths is that they include only those where Covid-19 infection has been confirmed by testing, and not those where the virus is identified as merely a possible cause. Many people have unfortunately passed away without diagnostic tests being performed, hence the shortfall, the result being that the official death toll in the whole country, according to some analyses, could be around 3,000 lower than the “real” figure.
But even this level of distortion is nothing compared to the degree to which the number of people infected is recognized to be underestimated. It has been concluded by many analysts that the lack of testing has resulted in only around 10 per cent of the cases in Spain being confirmed – which implies that as of Tuesday this week the virus had spread to some 1.4 million people in this country – and now the Ministry of Health recognizes that in fact the figures could be understated by even more than that.
The Ministry’s estimate is that only 1 in 16 cases has been officially diagnosed, and in order to determine the true extent of Covid-19 is preparing a nationwide study on a representative sample of the population in order to reach an approximation of the true figure. In collaboration with the government’s central statistics unit and the national Carlos III health institute in Madrid the Ministry has decided on a sample of 30,000 households (and 62,400 people) who will be tested for coronavirus, a level of testing sufficient to provide a margin of accuracy of around 2.5 per cent and a confidence level of 95 per cent.
The results of the sample study will confirm whether it is correct to estimate that 5 per cent of the population of Spain has been affected, with the rates varying widely in different parts of the country. If that 5 per cent figure is indeed correct, that would mean approximately 2.35 million people in Spain.
The sample will include approximately 1,600 people in the Region of Murcia, where an initial rapid test will be carried out on one member of each household selected. If that test proves negative a more time-consuming PCR test will also be performed, since these offer a higher level of reliability, and the process will be repeated after an interval of 21 days. The procedures will of course be identical throughout Spain.
When the results are known it will mean that the government is at least able to make decisions regarding a scaling down of the lockdown restrictions based on more reliable statistics than those currently available. In the meantime, though, the process provides a reminder that while the most recent daily figures may indicate a gradual slowing down in the increasing death and infection totals, those totals need to be taken with a very large pinch of salt indeed.
Remember: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN. STAY AT HOME. STAY SAFE AND DO YOUR BIT TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS.
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Around Mazarrón news, events and local info: Click to join
Mazarrón, Fuente Álamo, Águilas, Lorca, Totana, Puerto Lumbreras, Camposol, Alhama de Murcia. Click to join (all within a half hour drive of each other)
Mar Menor news, events and local info. Click to join (this includes all the Mar Menor municipalities and Cartagena)
North-west Murcia: Bullas, Mula, Cehegin, Caravaca, Cieza, Calasparra, Jumilla, Moratalla info. Click to join
What to do if you are in the Region of Murcia and believe you may have contracted the virus
The regional government has set up a special helpline to supply information to members of the public (900 121212) if they suspect that they may have contracted the virus rather than going straight to hospital or to a medical centre.
Sensible precautions
The advice being issued to members of the public by medical authorities all over the world coincides on the following points:
- Wash hands frequently with either soap and water or a sanitiser gel
- Catch coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues – and throw the tissues away immediately after use before immediately washing your hands!
- If you don’t have a tissue, use your sleeve – and wash the item of clothing used at the next opportunity
- AVOID touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands
- AVOID close contact with people who are unwell
- Don´t panic!
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