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ARCHIVED - Statistics suggest the official Covid-19 death toll in Spain is considerably lower than the reality
Official Covid-19 totals in some regions fail to explain the increase in the number of deaths recorded
Over the last couple of weeks the daily routine of most Spaniards has come to include a grim ritual at 11.30 every morning, when a daily report is given of the number of newly confirmed coronavirus cases and related fatalities during the previous 24 hours, but it has been reported that in fact even the bad news being provided in these bulletins is not reflecting the true extent of the pandemic in this country.
Even as the number of deaths reached over 830 on Sunday and Monday, taking the total up to 7,340, a report compiled at the Carlos III health institute in Madrid concludes that in some regions of Spain the coronavirus death toll is in fact at least twice as high as the numbers reported, and that the figures detailed every day by Fernando Simón – at least until Monday, when it was confirmed that he too has tested positive – include only patients who have died after being diagnosed with the virus.
The institute uses a daily mortality analysis to estimate the most likely overall number of deaths on a historical basis (without the effects of Covid-19 being taken into account), a technique which can highlight any unusual increases caused by factors such as flu epidemics or heatwaves. This kind of analysis shows, for example, that in the region of Castilla y León the number of deaths recorded between 17th and 24th March was 885, some 77 per cent more than the “normal” figure of around 500 for the same dates in previous years.
But if the logical deduction is that the “extra” 385 deaths were caused by the coronavirus, this would indicate that the official Covid-19 figure of 112 in the region during the week is a severe underestimate. The shortfall is attributed to the coronavirus having gone undetected in cases where the cause of death has been reported as pneumonia or other conditions, or where testing was not carried out due to the shortage of the necessary equipment.
It has already been stated on numerous occasions that the real number of coronavirus cases in Spain could be as much as ten times higher than the figures reported, meaning that over half a million people in this country are probably infected. But this apparent understatement of the number of fatalities shows that the impact of the virus on Spanish society is actually far more important than the official data are showing.
The Carlos III analysis reaches similar conclusions in the regions of Castilla-La Mancha and Madrid, where the apparent shortfalls in the coronavirus fatality figures seem to lead to the regional authorities recognizing only 50 per cent and 35 per cent of the fatalities respectively, but in other regions the data provided by civil registries is too incomplete for the equivalent studies to be reliable.
In addition, the compilers recognize that even the registries of deaths are overworked at present, but are intent on continuing with their analyses as the pandemic continues and on filling the gaps in the information provided as best they can.
It must be highlighted that the first death from coronavirus was only reported three weeks AFTER it had occurred. The death of the first victim had originally been attributed to pneumonia, but subsequent tests identified Covid-19 as being the true cause.
If this situation is the same for the many cases which have been attributed to pneumonia as indicated above, then a different picture emerges of the true toll of coronavirus.
It must also be highlighted that the number of suspected cases is also highly questionable as the majority of suspected cases are not being tested due to a lack of testing equipment, as reported many times. See news feed below.
Remember: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN. STAY AT HOME. STAY SAFE AND DO YOUR BIT TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS.
Follow Murcia Today on Facebook to keep up to date with all the latest updates locally for the Region of Murcia and the main information for the rest of Spain: https://www.facebook.com/MurciaToday/.
Our local area groups are as follows. These are designed to filter locally specific information and may be used by clubs, charities, any of the businesses who work with us to ensure information is available to residents in English and for those living in the specific areas. They are not buy and sell groups, do not accept any bickering or argumentative so and so's, are not "open for any old rubbish" pages, and are not trying to compete with your local comunity groups, they are specifically for sharing good, relevant local information and we hope you will use them for that during this difficult time.
Around Mazarrón news, events and local info: Click to join
Mazarrón, Fuente Álamo, Águilas, Lorca, Totana, Puerto Lumbreras, Camposol, Alhama de Murcia. Click to join (all within a half hour drive of each other)
Mar Menor news, events and local info. Click to join (this includes all the Mar Menor municipalities and Cartagena)
North-west Murcia: Bullas, Mula, Cehegin, Caravaca, Cieza, Calasparra, Jumilla, Moratalla info. Click to join
What to do if you are in the Region of Murcia and believe you may have contracted the virus
The regional government has set up a special helpline to supply information to members of the public (900 121212) if they suspect that they may have contracted the virus rather than going straight to hospital or to a medical centre.
Sensible precautions
The advice being issued to members of the public by medical authorities all over the world coincides on the following points:
- Wash hands frequently with either soap and water or a sanitiser gel
- Catch coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues – and throw the tissues away immediately after use before immediately washing your hands!
- If you don’t have a tissue, use your sleeve – and wash the item of clothing used at the next opportunity
- AVOID touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands
- AVOID close contact with people who are unwell
- Don´t panic!
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