ARCHIVED - Unemployment in Spain drops to its lowest for 11 years but definite signs that it is bottoming out

The jobless total rose by 15,000 in the last quarter of 2019 in the Region of Murcia

The Spanish government’s central statistics unit published its Active Population Survey (EPA) relating to the final quarter of 2019 on Tuesday, reporting that the number of people out of work across the country fell by just 22,500 (or 0.7 per cent) between 1st October and 31^st December to 3,191,900.

A decrease in the number of people out of work is the norm in Spain in the fourth quarter of the year as seasonal employment in the tourism sector reduces queues at employment offices, but despite the latest figure being the lowest reported since the third quarter of 2008 the results for the three months are not completely positive. The fall in the jobless total is the second least significant in any fourth quarter since 2013, and there are definite signs that the figure is close to bottoming out with an unemployment rate of just under 14 per cent among the active population.

In addition, the number of people in employment rose during the year by 402,300, the smallest increase since the economic recovery began to be reflected in the job market in 2013, and while the figure is now almost exactly half of the 6.27 million which was reached in the first quarter of 2013, having fallen over the last twelve months by 2.76 per cent (or 112,400), there are definite signs that the total is bottoming out.

With the minimum wage in Spain having risen to 950 euros per month as of 1^st January this year (29 per cent higher than in 2018), many analysts are expecting that the jobless total will stagnate at best this year, with an increase a distinct possibility.

During the fourth quarter of last year there was again a wide disparity in the trends regarding unemployment figures among Spain’s 17 regions. In the Canaries a decrease of 9.2 per cent was recorded as jobs were generated during the winter tourist season (although the figure was only 4.7 per cent lower than in the final quarter of 2018), while at the other end of the scale there were increases of 29.4 per cent in Cantabria and 15 per cent in the Region of Murcia.

This latest result meant that the year ended poorly in terms of unemployment in Murcia, as over the last 12 months there has been a rise of 3.12 per cent in the number of people out of work, the second most significant in the country, although at the same time the number of people in work rose by 1.21 per cent. The unemployment total now stands at 117,200 according to the EPA, 15,200 more than in the previous quarter and 3,500 more than a year ago, although it is worth bearing in mind that almost six years ago, in the first quarter of 2013, the figure was almost double its current level at 215,400!

NOTE: It should be pointed out that the figures contained in the quarterly EPA are almost always higher than those which are reported on a monthly basis, although on this occasion the difference in Murcia is minimal. This is because the monthly data include only those who are registered as being out of work at their local employment offices, whilst the EPA also takes into account those who are unemployed but, for one reason or another, have chosen not to register as such.

The latest monthly registered unemployment data for December show a total across Spain of 3,163,605, while in the Region of Murcia the data gave a figure of 98,941.

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