ARCHIVED - Spanish Health Minister says a peak in the coronavirus is very close

Cautious optimism but the resources of hospitals and health services are still overstretched

Salvador Illa, the Minister for Health in the Spanish government, stated during a televised press conference on Monday that the latest data available lead him and his colleagues to believe that if a peak has not yet been reached in the rise of coronavirus cases in this country, then it is very close.

It is extremely dangerous to leap to positive conclusions from what are widely acknowledged to be faulty or incomplete data – most experts believe that only around 10 per cent of all cases in Spain have been reported and there are also believed  to be severe understatements in the numbers of associated fatalities – but the figures regarding newly confirmed cases have been lower than previously on both of the last two days, at between 6,000 and 7,000. More significantly, perhaps, the proportional daily increases have dropped from around 20 to 25 per cent a week ago to “only” 8.1 per cent on Monday 30^th March.

However, logically as the numbers get larger, then if the same number of cases is reported, the percentage increase will be lower.

See full data: Over 85,000 cases in Spain as death toll rises to 7,340

He may be accused by some of clutching at straws, but Sr Illa is not the only one to see signs of a rather less negative trend emerging, although he is right to do so while expressing the utmost caution and of course the need to obey the lockdown restrictions as strictly as ever.

At the same time, the worst is not yet over for the overstretched regional health services all over Spain, with the numbers of patients in intensive care units continuing to rise in almost the whole of the country and saturation point having already been reached in Madrid: for this reason the government has set aside another 1,000 million euros in a contingency emergency fund to enable regional authorities to survive the crisis.

Sr Illa was speaking alongside the Minister for the Interior, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, at the first government press conference since the imposition of a near-complete economic shutdown across Spain at midnight.

In Murcia the regional health minister has warned that "more hard days lie ahead", estimating that 12 more days of hardship will follow before the Covid-19 cases start to stabilise.

In terms of forecasting how long the current crisis might last, the statement that “there are 12 hard days ahead, according to the mathematicians” should not be taken to mean that after that period matters will in any way become easy. One of the mathematical forecasting models quoted in the press analyses three possible scenarios and even in the best of them “stabilization” of the situation will not be reached until the end of April, with 2,000 cases in Murcia.

On the other hand, if the lockdown is not properly obeyed and enforced it may have an effectiveness of only 65 per cent in halting the spread of Covid-19, and this would mean the current outbreak of the pandemic lasting until June, with the number of cases in Murcia rising to approximately 5,000. Even slight variations in the effectiveness of the lockdown could lead to significant differences in the numbers of cases and fatalities, and it is also important to understand that the confinement of people to their homes is likely to last long after a peak in the number of new cases is reached.

The figures and dates produced are merely the product of mathematical simulations and should not be taken as predictions. However, it is clear as the end of March approaches that the degree to which the lockdown is taken seriously is vital in determining the eventual number of cases and victims, and the length of time the restrictions will last.

Remember: LOCKDOWN MEANS LOCKDOWN. STAY AT HOME. STAY SAFE AND DO YOUR BIT TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS.

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What to do if you are in the Region of Murcia and believe you may have contracted the virus

The regional government has set up a special helpline to supply information to members of the public (900 121212) if they suspect that they may have contracted the virus rather than going straight to hospital or to a medical centre.

Sensible precautions

The advice being issued to members of the public by medical authorities all over the world coincides on the following points:

- Wash hands frequently with either soap and water or a sanitiser gel

- Catch coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues – and throw the tissues away immediately after use before immediately washing your hands!

- If you don’t have a tissue, use your sleeve – and wash the item of clothing used at the next opportunity

- AVOID touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands

- AVOID close contact with people who are unwell

- Don´t panic!